If two customers are both 60 days past their last purchase, should they necessarily receive the same win-back treatment?

I’m testing a small retention question:

For example:

• monthly consumable
• seasonal/gift purchase
• large multi-pack

The “days since last purchase” signal is identical, but the expected reorder behavior may not be.

I’m testing whether a lightweight manual diagnostic can improve the decision before a win-back flow is triggered.

For anyone working with real Shopify/Klaviyo data:

What is the minimum evidence you would want before changing the treatment for a customer segment?

I’m especially interested in practical merchant/operator experience rather than theoretical models.

LAST PURCHASE: 60 DAYS AGO

↓

SAME SIGNAL
≠
SAME BEHAVIOR

Product
Cadence
Order size
Seasonality
Engagement

↓

Different intervention?

Sign up